Short answer: it depends on your heating fuel. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects winter 2026-27 heating spending to fall about 9% for natural gas and about 3% for propane, but rise about 4% for electric heat and about 21% for heating oil, compared with last winter (EIA, October 2026).
The forecast by fuel
| Main heating fuel | Share of U.S. homes | Expected change in winter spending | Main reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | more than 40% | up about 4% | Higher electricity prices |
| Natural gas | about half of homes use gas or propane | down about 9% | Lower prices; storage above average |
| Propane | (included above) | down about 3% | Lower prices |
| Heating oil | about 3%, mostly Northeast | up about 21% | Tight global diesel/distillate supply |
Source: EIA’s winter outlook and October 6, 2026 press release. Forecasts assume normal weather; a cold snap changes everything.
Why the fuels are moving differently
- Natural gas: storage is expected to enter winter about 2% above the five-year average, and production keeps growing. EIA forecasts the Henry Hub price to average $3.16 per MMBtu in 2027, down 9% from 2026.
- Electricity: wholesale prices are forecast to average $52 per MWh in 2026, 11% higher than 2025, with a 41% jump in the PJM region (Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest). Retail prices follow, with a lag. Demand from data centers is part of the long-term story; see what data centers mean for your bill.
- Heating oil: East Coast distillate inventories were about 32% below their five-year average in September, per EIA.
Weather is the wild card
EIA expects national temperatures close to last winter overall, with a warmer Northeast and a much colder West. The agency notes a strong El Niño could shift outcomes. Every cold week pushes bills above forecast regardless of price.
What to do now, by fuel
- Electric heat (baseboard or furnace): the bigger the bill, the bigger the payoff from a heat pump. A heat pump can cut heating electricity by about half versus resistance heat (energy.gov). See heat pump vs baseboard.
- Heat pump owners: avoid triggering backup strip heat. See how to run a heat pump efficiently in winter.
- Heating oil: ask your dealer about budget plans or price caps, and keep the burner tuned.
- Everyone: air sealing and attic insulation cut heating needs whatever the fuel. Start with 12 ways to cut your winter bill.
- Behind on bills? Ask your utility about payment plans and the federal LIHEAP program through your state.
FAQ
Will my bill definitely go down if I heat with gas? Not necessarily: a colder winter, rate changes or higher delivery charges can offset lower gas prices.
Where can I see local prices? Your utility’s rate page and the EIA’s state data.